California recall: Newsom fights for survival as historic crises fuel extraordinary race

allots were already being cast in California’s gubernatorial recall election when Gavin Newsom, visiting a pop-up clinic in Oakland, once again implored his constituents to get the Covid-19 vaccine. The week before, the governor had visited the site of the devastating Caldor fire, which had threatened the resort town of South Lake Tahoe and destroyed nearly 1,000 structures.

These calamities – a once-in-a-generation health crisis and unprecedented challenges posed drought and extreme weather – were, largely, what gave rise to the recall effort. Having won his seat by a historic margin in 2018, Newsom has found himself in a peculiar position. Still broadly popular in the state, he’s fending off challenges from Republicans and rightwingers who are more out of touch with most residents than the governor at his worst. Extraordinary crises have given rise to an extraordinary recall – one that could trigger extraordinary political upheaval in one of America’s bluest states.

The recall ballot asks Californians two questions. First, should the governor be recalled? And, if so, who should replace him? If more than 50% vote yes on the first question, the candidate with a plurality in question two becomes governor. Right now, Newsom’s leading challenger is the rabble-rousing rightwing radio host Larry Elder. Other Republicans, including the former San Diego mayor Kevin Faulconer, the assemblyman Kevin Kiley, the businessman John Cox and the Olympian turned reality TV star Caitlyn Jenner, have failed to gain traction, and no prominent Democrats are running.

As the 14 September deadline to return ballots creeps closer, Newsom is characterizing voters’ decision between him and his Republican challengers as a “choice about life and death”.

“We’re experiencing extreme weather the likes of which we’ve never experienced in our lifetime,” Newsom said at a rally on Wednesday. “Look what’s going on across this country, look at states that don’t believe in science,” he added, contrasting himself against Elder, who has said that climate science is “crock” and vowed to roll back statewide vaccination and mask mandates. His closing argument in the recall is that maybe he’s made some mistakes – but the alternative is way worse.

Calif. Gov. Newsom visits E. LA - during the Coronavirus pandemic, East Los Angeles, California, United States - 14 Aug 2021
Mandatory Credit: Photo by Genaro Molina/Los Angeles Times/REX/Shutterstock (12295641o) EAST LOS ANGELES, CA - AUGUST 14, 2021 - -California Gov. Gavin Newsom meets with Latino leaders to vote no on the recall at Hecho en Mexico restaurant in East Los Angeles on August 14, 2021. Governor Newsom met with volunteers who were working the phone banks calling voters to vote against the recall at the restaurant. Los Angeles City Councilman Kevin de Leon, California, California Assemblyman Miguel Santiago, California State Senator Maria Elena Durazo and other dignitaries were on hand to support the governor. (Genaro Molina / Los Angeles Times) Calif. Gov. Newsom visits E. LA - during the Coronavirus pandemic, East Los Angeles, California, United States - 14 Aug 2021 Newsom has a huge cash advantage in California’s recall vote. It may mean nothing
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“Newsom was one of the better governors in the country during the outbreak of the Covid pandemic,” said James Lance Taylor, a political scientist at the University of San Francisco. “And as the dust clears, on almost all scores, California did relatively well in enacting these pandemic measures and restrictions.”

There were, undoubtedly, major missteps. Parents grew frustrated when public schools remained closed in California for longer than they did in other states. The state’s unemployment department struggled with enormous backlogs, and hundreds of thousands of jobless residents’ claims were delayed, even as the agency paid out an estimated $31bn in fraudulent claims. Newsom faced harsh criticisms over the state’s initially slow vaccine rollout and